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Commentary by Robert Carreira
According to figures released by the Arizona Department of Commerce, Cochise County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in September, its highest level since June 2003. The statewide unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent — its highest level since July 2003. Nationwide, the unemployment rate stabilized at 6.1 percent in September.
Cochise County lost 150 nonfarm jobs from August to September. Compared with September last year, the number of nonfarm jobs in Cochise County was down by 1,250, for a 12-month job growth rate of -3.3 percent.
The county’s private sector lost 300 jobs in September. Since September last year, the county has lost 1,500 private sector jobs, for job growth of -5.8 percent.
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Within the private sector, the number of goods producing jobs — which includes manufacturing and construction — declined by 50 in September. This reflects the loss of 75 construction jobs and a gain of 25 manufacturing jobs. Since September 2007, the county’s goods producing sub-sector has seen a net loss of 475 jobs, for 12-month job growth of -14.2 percent. The county’s construction industry lost 375 jobs in the 12 months ending in September, for job growth of -15.8 percent; while manufacturing lost 100 jobs, for job growth of -10.3 percent.
The county’s private service providing sub-sector lost 250 jobs in September. Trade, transportation, and utilities; professional and business services; and educational and health services each lost 25 jobs. Financial activities and other services each lost 50 jobs, while leisure and hospitality lost 75 jobs. Information jobs stabilized at August levels.
In the 12 months ending in September, the county’s private service providing sub-sector lost 1,025 jobs, for job growth of -4.6 percent. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 400 jobs, for job growth of -5.7 percent. Other services lost 200 jobs, for job growth of -22.9 percent. Professional and business services lost 125 jobs, for job growth of -2.6 percent.
The information industry, financial activities, educational and health services, and leisure and hospitality each lost 75 jobs. Job growth rates for the 12 months ending in September were: information, -13.0 percent; financial activities, -8.1 percent; educational and health services, -1.8 percent; and leisure and hospitality, -1.9 percent.
The government sector in Cochise County gained 150 jobs in September, which included a gain of 125 state and local government jobs and 25 federal government jobs. In the 12 months ending in September, the government sector gained 250 jobs for job growth of 2.0 percent. This includes a gain of 150 federal government jobs, for a job growth rate of 3.1 percent; and a gain of 100 state and local government jobs, for job growth of 1.3 percent.
According to ADOC estimates, adjusted for seasonality by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research, city level unemployment rates for September were: Benson, 10.7 percent; Bisbee, 6.7 percent; Douglas, 9.3 percent; Huachuca City, 8.8 percent; Sierra Vista, 3.6 percent; Tombstone, 4.0 percent; and Willcox, 9.3 percent.
It’s important to note that the ADOC unemployment estimates for cities in Cochise County are based on a model that pegs city rates to the county rate based on data from Census 2000.
The model does not pick up changes at the city level since 2000 that differ substantially from county-level trends. CER focus group discussions throughout the county indicate a likely overestimation of unemployment in Benson, Douglas, and Willcox, and a likely underestimation of unemployment in Sierra Vista..
Robert Carreira is director of the Center for Economic Research at Cochise College. E-mail at cer@cochise.edu. The center’s Web site is www.cochise.edu/cer.
