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SIERRA VISTA -- It is going to be hotter and drier at least through January, and drought conditions in Cochise County will persist, said retired meteorologist Steve Bieda.
The outlook from the National Weather Service is painting a less than wet winter monsoon for the area, he said.
"The Southwest is in trouble. The outlook through January calls for the long-term drought to persist," Bieda said.
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While there may be some off and on rainfall during the next three months, he said he doesn't expect much until February, and even then that month is questionable.
There are four categories of drought -- moderate, severe, extreme and exception. Three of the categories exist in Cochise County.
The area from the Santa Cruz River in Santa Cruz County east to the San Pedro River in Cochise County is in moderate drought, the least on the scale, Bieda said.
The area from the San Pedro River east to U.S. 191 is in severe drought, and from U.S. 191 all the way to west Texas is described as being in extreme drought condition, Bieda said.
Summer storms gave some relief, but most of that rainfall was west of Tucson.
Arizona has suffered from a drought for the past six years, "and we could have at least four more (years) to go," said Bieda, who retired as an Army civil service meteorologist who worked at the Electronic Proving Ground on Fort Huachuca.
The drought cycle is caused by the ground being dry, causing heat to rise into the upper level atmosphere. Because moisture is not available, rain-carrying clouds cannot form, he said.
Along with the drought outlook, higher temperatures will exist for at least the next three months.
By this time in October, temperatures in Southern Arizona should be in the low 80s, not the high 80s and low 90s as they are, the retired meteorologist said.
"I've never seen such a high probability of higher temperatures," Bieda said, adding that 40 percent is unusually high for a three-month forecast.
As for possibility of snow, Bieda said he does not see much of a snowpack in the mountains. The snow, he said, will not arrive until February or March,
Until better climatic conditions develop that will bring in moisture to Mexico, which then can be brought into Arizona, rainfall and snowfall is going to be less than normal during the 90-day outlook, he said.
Saying he knows it isn't grammatically correct, Bieda said of the long-term weather forecast for this part of Arizona: "It don't look good."
Joe Hicks wrote on Oct 8, 2007 2:22 PM: